Use of prior knowledge to inform restoration projects in estuaries of GOM

Patricia Varela, Ed Sherwood, Marcus Beck, Kirsten Dorans, Jessica Renee Henkel, Kathryn Ireland
July 28, 2017

Deepwater Horizon Settlement Agreement

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Over $10B in Potential Restoration Activities

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Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

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  • Vision to make it portable
  • Why Bayesian networks

Benefits

  • A general and flexible framework that can be applied to unique locations and is not limited by data availability
  • Explicit quantification of uncertainty and model updates with new data
  • More focused restoration towards specific regional issues
  • Improved ability to predict outcomes of proposed restoration projects

Tampa Bay was gross

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Tampa Bay was gross

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Tampa Bay is not as gross

Tampa Bay is not as gross

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But how much less gross??

But how much less gross??

Ed

  • Tampa Bay Background

Workflow

Kirsten/Katie

  • Model diagram
  • Merging restoration diagram

Data plyring

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • What data do we have?
  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?

Data plyring

Water quality data: 40 years, monthly, 45 stations

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